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Here’s what’s happening in the stock market today:
Stock futures are pointing slightly lower today amid rising oil prices driven by U.S.-Iran tensions, following three straight days of gains for major indexes yesterday. 📉🛢️ Walmart reported modest Q4 earnings beats but a cautious outlook, contributing to premarket caution as investors eye geopolitical risks and consumer health.
Major Indices Performance 📊
S&P 500 closed up 0.6% at 6,881.31 yesterday; futures down ~0.3-0.4% premarket.
Dow Jones rose 0.3% to 49,662.66; futures off ~0.4% or 180 points.
Nasdaq Composite gained 0.8% to 22,753.64, boosted by AI stocks; futures slipping 0.4%.
Market Movers 🚀
Walmart shares falling premarket after Q4 revenue of $190.7B (up 5.6%, slight beat) and EPS $0.74, with conservative FY2026 guidance.
Notable yesterday: Goldman Sachs +2.89%, Nvidia +2.03%, Amazon +1.85%; losers included 3M -2.23%, Boeing -1.19%.
Premarket gainers include STMicroelectronics +7.64%, iQIYI +7.59%; losers feature quantum/AI names like IonQ -8.2%, Rigetti -9.25%.
Key Events Driving the Market 🗞️
Oil prices rising: Brent +1.1% to $71.14, WTI +1.3% to $66.02 on U.S.-Iran escalation fears in oil-rich regions.
10-year Treasury yield around 3.98%, up slightly, pressuring stocks as bonds compete.
AI sector rebound yesterday lifted tech, but futures reflect rangebound trading ahead of Walmart results and sentiment data.
Investor Sentiment 👀
Bearish sentiment rose to 38.13% (from 29% last week), above long-term average of 31.27%, signaling growing caution.
Markets balance AI optimism and recent gains with oil/geopolitical worries and consumer signals from Walmart. 🐂⚠️
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TRADE OF THE DAY:
LITE
Name: Lumentum Holdings Inc.
Symbol: LITE
Current Price: ~$607.96
Trade
Sell to Open: 1 LITE Mar 13, 2026 445/440 Put Vertical (Bull Put)
Total Credit Received: $55.00
Credit per Contract: $55.00 (for one contract covering 100 shares)
Direction: Bullish (expects LITE to stay above break‑even level)
Probability of Profit (PoP): 84.99%
Potential ROI:
Max Risk (Loss): $445.00
ROI: ($55 ÷ $445) × 100 ≈ 12.4%
Trade Explained in Simple English:
You’re selling a 445/440 put vertical spread expiring March 13, 2026, by selling the 445 strike put and buying the 440 strike put as protection. You receive $55 upfront. The trade is profitable if LITE stays above about $444.45 (break‑even). Your potential loss is capped at $445 if LITE falls below $440, and your maximum reward is the $55 credit received.
Wall Street Highlights:
News Beyond the Numbers
Energy Services of America Corporation priced a $20.0 million public offering of 1,740,000 common shares at $11.50 each, granting underwriters an option for 261,000 more shares to fund general corporate purposes, working capital, and potential acquisitions. Read more
Toll Brothers posted Q1 FY2026 net income of $210.9 million and $2.19 diluted EPS, beating prior year figures, while signing net contracts worth $2.4 billion at an average price of $1,033,000 and selling half its Apartment Living portfolio for $330 million cash. Read more
Carvana stunned Wall Street with Q4 2025 EPS of $4.22 and $5.6 billion revenue, exceeding estimates on 43% retail unit growth to cap a record year of 596,641 vehicles sold. Read more
Wall Street firms are pushing deeper into prediction markets through new SEC-approved ETF filings, aiming to bring liquidity and transparency to institutional event betting. Read more
Disclaimer: The content provided by OptionPicks is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. We are not registered as a broker-dealer, investment adviser, or financial advisor with the SEC, FINRA, or any other regulatory authority. Options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and no representation is being made that any subscriber will or is likely to achieve profits or incur losses similar to those mentioned. You should consult with a licensed financial professional before making any investment decisions.
