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Here’s what’s happening in the stock market today:
The stock market ended mixed today as chip stocks rebounded from last week's selloff ahead of the Fed's rate decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh, with energy stocks pulled by falling oil prices. 📊⚖️ Dow rose 0.64% to 51,999.67 (+328.64 pts), while S&P 500 fell 0.57% to 7,511.35 (-42.94 pts) and Nasdaq dropped 1.15% to 26,376.34 (-307.60 pts). Chipmakers led gains: Intel jumped 11.19%, Micron +9.87%, Marvell +9.63%, Applied Materials +8.64%, Nvidia +1.73%, Broadcom +2.8%. Oil fell over 4% to ~$80-82/barrel on US-Iran deal easing supply fears, while gold held near $3,146. Treasury yields steady: 10-year at 4.44%. Fed expected to hold at 3.5-3.75% (3.6%) Wednesday with Warsh's first press conference at 2:30 PM ET. 🛢️💰
Major Indices Performance 📊
Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.64%, adding 328.64 points; closed at 51,999.67.
S&P 500 declined 0.57%, down 42.94 points; closed at 7,511.35.
Nasdaq Composite fell 1.15%, shedding 307.60 points; closed at 26,376.34.
Market Movers 🚀
Intel surged 11.19% on Google/Nvidia chip production interest upgrades.
Micron Technology jumped 9.87-9.92% on analyst revisions; Marvell Technology +9.63% on AI demand.
Applied Materials rose 8.64%, ASML +6.54%, Nvidia +1.73%, Broadcom +2.8% in chip rebound.
Energy decliners: Oil drop hurt APA, OXY, DVN on Middle East deal easing risk premiums.
Jabil Circuit +10.44%, AMD +4.26%, Lam Research +4.24% among premarket gainers.
Key Events Driving the Market 🗞️
Fed's first meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh Wednesday: 99.5% odds of hold at 3.5-3.75% (3.6%), "nothing for foreseeable future" on cuts.
Warsh's inaugural press conference at 2:30 PM ET will cover inflation, employment, and rate path guidance.
Chip stocks rebounded from Friday's $1T selloff, with Intel/Micron leading 11%/9.9% gains.
US-Iran preliminary peace deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz within 30 days; oil fell 4% to ~$80-82/barrel.
June rates expected flat amid 4.2% inflation; CME FedWatch shows near-zero cut odds, possible hikes later 2026.
Investor Sentiment 👀
Overall, mood is cautiously optimistic as chip recovery and geopolitical relief from the Iran deal drive sentiment ahead of Warsh's Fed debut. Trading volumes moderate on Fed pause certainty, though eyes on press conference for 2026 hike signals. Markets blend semiconductor/AI optimism with oil calm balanced against persistent inflation and zero cut odds. 🐂⚖️
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TRADE OF THE DAY:
TJX
Name: The TJX Companies, Inc.
Symbol: TJX
Current Price: Approximately $166.59
Trade
Sell to Open (bullish): 1 TJX Jul 17, 2026 Bull Put Credit Spread (154.63/— strike structure implied)
Total Credit Received: $37.00
Credit per Contract: $37.00 (for one contract covering 100 shares)
Direction: Bullish (expects TJX to stay above $154.63 at expiration)
Probability of Profit (PoP):
89.32%
Potential ROI:
Max Risk (Loss): $463.00
ROI: ($37 ÷ $463) × 100 ≈ 8.0%
Trade Explained in Simple English:
This is a defined-risk bullish options spread on TJX expiring July 17, 2026, where you collect $37 upfront. The goal is for TJX to stay above $154.63, which keeps both options out of the money and lets you keep the credit.
If TJX remains above that level at expiration, the trade expires worthless in your favor and you keep the full $37. If it drops below the break-even level, losses are capped at $463. The trade is considered bullish because it benefits from TJX staying stable or trending higher over time.
Wall Street Highlights:
News Beyond the Numbers
Goldman Sachs set a new record in 2026 dealmaking, advising on over $1 trillion in mergers and acquisitions in just the first half of the year, fueled by AI-driven consolidation and blockbuster transactions. Read More
U.S. asset managers filed to launch new AI-focused ETFs tied to major “MANGOS” companies, including Meta, Nvidia, Google, and SpaceX, signaling a surge in thematic investing around artificial intelligence. Read More
SpaceX completed a $60 billion all-stock acquisition of AI coding startup Cursor shortly after its blockbuster IPO, highlighting how newly inflated valuations are fueling mega-deals in the tech sector. Read More
JPMorgan analysts raised expectations for major U.S. banks, citing stronger-than-expected trading and investment banking activity tied to IPOs and large-scale corporate deal flow. Read More
Momentum is building for a wave of AI-driven IPOs, with firms like OpenAI and Anthropic reportedly preparing listings that could rank among the largest in history as demand for AI infrastructure capital accelerates. Read More
Disclaimer: The content provided by OptionPicks is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. We are not registered as a broker-dealer, investment adviser, or financial advisor with the SEC, FINRA, or any other regulatory authority. Options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and no representation is being made that any subscriber will or is likely to achieve profits or incur losses similar to those mentioned. You should consult with a licensed financial professional before making any investment decisions.
